Vancouver’s housing market is stronger than Toronto’s heading into turbulence brought on by tariffs, according to an analysis by TD Economics.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi wrote in a March 6 report that the Metro Vancouver housing market registered a “tepid performance” to start 2025, but it is not as soft as the Greater Toronto Area’s housing and condo sectors.
“While both markets could continue struggling, the GVA is on a firmer footing than the GTA heading into this bout of tariff-related turbulence,” wrote Sondhi, using a Toronto-centric term for Metro Vancouver.
While Metro Vancouver faces well-known affordability challenges, its market has demonstrated resilience, Sondhi said. Home sales were up 21 per cent year-on-year over the past three months on average, he said—"miles better" than in the GTA, where they were up only eight per cent.
Meanwhile, Metro Vancouver’s average and benchmark prices are down six per cent and four per cent, respectively, from their pandemic peaks as of January, compared to the “outsized decline” of about 15 per cent in average and benchmark prices in the GTA.
The analysis found that condos have held up relatively well in Metro Vancouver, sales being up 14 per cent year-on-year in January, while dropping 12 per cent in the GTA by that same metric. The report referred to the GTA’s condo market as “the poster child” for that region’s weakness, with “a supply glut, weak levels of demand and conditions that favour buyers.”
“Condo construction is holding up better in the GVA, likely supported by ownership housing demand that’s been more resilient in recent years,” Sondhi said.
The analysis also found that purpose-built rental construction is stronger in Vancouver, with the region building a larger absolute number of units as measured by a six-month moving average of purpose-built rental starts. This is despite Metro Vancouver having a population that’s about 40 per cent the size of the GTA, it said.
“Looking longer-term, the fact that housing construction has been able to hold up much better in the GVA gives the region a leg up in the effort to address its housing shortage,” said Sondhi.
