RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) 鈥� Democrats celebrated winning what was billed as North Carolina's lone toss-up race for the U.S. House this month, as state Sen. Wiley Nickel鈥檚 in the 13th Congressional District helped weaken any national GOP midterm wave.
Nickel's win creates a 7-7 split in the state鈥檚 delegation, marking the best showing for state Democrats after a decade of trailing the GOP in an otherwise closely divided state. Trial judges drew the latest district boundaries after redistricting litigation successfully blocked maps passed by the Republican-controlled legislature that could have whittled Democrats down to four seats.
鈥淲e鈥檙e a 50-50 state 鈥� we should have a 7-to-7 delegation," Nickel told The Associated Press this week during a break in his congressional orientation in Washington. "When we have fair maps, we get fair results that reflect the choice of the voters.鈥�
But there鈥檚 a good chance Nickel's Raleigh-area district and others will be dramatically altered for the 2024 elections, returning the advantage to Republicans.
A confluence of events opens the door for General Assembly Republicans to pass their preferred congressional map in 2023 and have it used the following year. A new GOP majority on the state Supreme Court likely will be more skeptical of legal challenges that allege excessive partisanship.
鈥淪even-seven does not reflect the will of the voters in North Carolina,鈥� House Speaker Tim Moore told reporters the day after the election. 鈥淪o it should be something different. I don鈥檛 know what that is. But at the end of the day ... let鈥檚 trust the voters of this state.鈥�
Republicans hold eight of the state鈥檚 13 U.S. House districts through the year鈥檚 end. Population growth gave North Carolina a 14th seat with the November election.
GOP legislators vehemently opposed a split opinion by the state Supreme Court last winter that struck down a more favorable map for their party by declaring the state constitution prohibited partisan gerrymandering of boundaries.
State law required the judge-drawn map be used only for this year's races. Republicans will continue to have majorities in the state House and Senate next year comfortable enough to pass their favored map. Redistricting plans are not subject to Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper鈥檚 veto stamp.
Most importantly, come January with victories by Trey Allen and Richard Dietz for seats currently held by registered Democrats.
The current 4-3 Democratic majority ruled that congressional and legislative maps approved by the General Assembly in November 2021 unlawfully gave Republicans outsized favoritism compared with Democrats. The three Republican justices who dissented wrote that the constitution doesn't expressly bar or limit partisan advantage in mapmaking.
The arrival of two more GOP justices makes it more likely 鈥� but not assured 鈥� that the court would uphold a future congressional map by the legislature while rejecting last year鈥檚 landmark ruling that defined illegal partisan gerrymandering.
Senate leader Phil Berger said he expected the state would now move away from what he called the 鈥渏udicial gerrymander鈥� to 鈥渨hat would be, I think, a different drawing of the congressional maps.鈥�
It鈥檚 too soon to say what the next congressional lines will look like. Plans approved by the legislature but never implemented would have positioned Republicans to win 10 of the state鈥檚 14 congressional seats.
Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury, said Nickel would be a likely target for Republican lawmakers to place in a more GOP-friendly district.
Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson, who won the newly created 14th District seat covering portions of Mecklenburg and Gaston counties, and 6th District Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning of Greensboro, who was elected to her second term, are also vulnerable, Bitzer said.
It鈥檚 possible the state Supreme Court shift could be moot. and could result in state courts losing the ability to judge laws involving federal elections, including seat boundaries. Oral arguments are scheduled for next month in the case, in which lawyers for Berger and Moore argue the U.S. Constitution delegates 鈥渢he Times, Places and Manner鈥� of congressional elections solely to state legislatures.
鈥淓ven if they鈥檙e unsuccessful in the U.S. Supreme Court, they now have a state Supreme Court that is most likely to be deferential to whatever the legislature comes up with, excusing any precedent鈥� reached by the state justices, Bitzer said.
An analysis by Bitzer of federal statewide contests in North Carolina since 2008 show Republican candidates winning nearly 51% of the cumulative votes compared with 47% for Democrats. But the idea that a political party should be assured of seats aligned with their percentage support at the ballot box over time was shunned by authors of the state Supreme Court鈥檚 prevailing and dissenting opinions last February.
Nickel said he鈥檚 not worrying himself about what a future map looks like.
鈥淲e鈥檝e got a huge opportunity to make some real bipartisan accomplishments in the next Congress, so that鈥檚 really the focus,鈥� Nickel said. 鈥淎t some point, they will draw new maps, but I鈥檓 optimistic that when that happens, we鈥檒l have a seat we can run in.鈥�
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This story was first published on Nov. 20. It was updated on Nov. 28 to correct that Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning was elected this month to a second term, not a third term.
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Schoenbaum is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.
Gary D. Robertson And Hannah Schoenbaum, The Associated Press
