Now that bitcoin and other crypto assets are hitting record highs again, are you going to revisit your obviously incorrect opinion of this asset class? It seems you’ve left a lot of money on the table.
Donald Trump’s vow to turn the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet” has lit a fire under the sector.
Since the U.S. presidential on Nov. 5, the price of bitcoin has surged about 20 per cent. As of early Friday afternoon, was trading at US$89,000 and change. Crypto mining and trading stocks have also jumped as investors pour billions of dollars into the space, hoping that Mr. Trump’s administration will deliver on his promise to build a national stockpile of bitcoin and usher in a new era of friendly regulations that will fuel massive growth for the sector.
So I must be kicking myself, right?
Not at all. Here are five reasons I’m happy to watch the bitcoin rally from the sidelines.
I stick to what I know
As an investor who favours more traditional assets – primarily dividend-paying stocks, index exchange-traded funds, guaranteed investment certificates and high-interest savings products – I am careful not to step outside my comfort zone. The strategy has served me well for decades, and I believe it will continue to generate solid returns. While focusing on profitable, growing companies, I judiciously avoid anything speculative in nature, whether it’s an unproven tech startup, meme stocks such as GameStop Corp. () and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. () or the latest crypto token. Resisting the urge to chase fads is one of the keys to successful investing. If I leave some money on the table, so be it. It’s the price I pay for staying disciplined.
Crypto generates no income
Another reason I avoid crypto is that it produces no earnings and generates no income. This is a problem for a couple of reasons. First, it means I wouldn’t receive any cash for holding bitcoin, unlike a stock that sends me regular, tax-efficient dividend payments. Second, the absence of profits and dividends makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to properly value crypto assets. Bitcoin can’t have a price-to-earnings multiple because it has no earnings. And it can’t have a yield because it pays no dividend. The value of crypto assets is therefore determined solely by what investors are willing to pay, and making money on the investment depends on selling the asset to a “greater fool” for a higher price. There is simply nothing anchoring the value apart from the whims of millions of speculators.
The price is way too volatile
Imagine you have your eye on a new car that costs $50,000. When you drop by the dealership a few months later, however, the price has doubled to more than $100,000. Then, a few months after that, the price plunges to $45,000. Thankfully, this doesn’t happen in real life, because our currency is relatively stable. Now, imagine it’s the year 2021 – when bitcoin had a series of booms and busts – and you’re using crypto to fund your car purchase. Assuming the car’s sticker price in dollars stays constant, the price in bitcoin would have doubled, and then fallen by more than half, over the span of a few months. Does that sound like a recipe for economic stability? Bitcoin’s extreme volatility is one reason it has never gained wide appeal as a medium of exchange, apart from being a preferred “currency” of ransomware hackers, money launderers and other criminals. What’s more, the industry has been riddled by scandal and scam artists from Day 1. I’ll stay far away, thanks.
Sorry, bitcoin is no good here
Given bitcoin’s volatility, is it any wonder that, in El Salvador, which in 2021 became the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, most hotels, shops and restaurants still won’t accept it as payment, despite a law requiring them to do so? Bitcoin’s volatility isn’t the only thing scaring people off. Businesses cite technical glitches with a government-issued bitcoin app, privacy concerns and reluctance to use a transaction medium that very few people even understand. Ask yourself this: Have you ever been unable to buy something or pay for a service because you didn’t have any bitcoin handy? It’s never happened to me. I don’t think it ever will. For consumers, at least, bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem that doesn’t exist. The real reason the crypto industry is booming and institutions are getting in on the action is simple: People think they can make money off of it. It is one gigantic FOMO trade.
My portfolio is doing just fine without crypto, thanks
In the past year, most of the stocks in my model have posted double-digit gains, with several rising by more than half when dividends are factored in. These include Manulife Financial Corp. (), with a one-year total return of about 87 per cent through Nov. 14, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (), up 78 per cent, TC Energy Corp. (), 62 per cent, Capital Power Corp. (), 60 per cent, and Royal Bank (), 50 per cent. Sure, these returns trail the 135-per-cent gain in bitcoin over the past year. But, unlike bitcoin, these companies provide products and services that everyone uses, and they send me a chunk of cash every month out of the profits they make. I’m not worried that any of them will see their value cut in half. I can’t say the same about bitcoin. Nobody can.
E-mail your questions to [email protected]. I’m not able to respond personally to e-mails but I choose certain questions to answer in my column.
