You don’t need a poll to tell you B.C.’s election is going to be a close, hard-fought, brutal affair. But there was one for you to read anyway on Tuesday, in the form of a showing a statistical tie between the BC Conservatives and NDP just days before the Sept. 21 start of the campaign.
We won’t dwell too much on the minutiae, other than to say it’s the second poll to outline this broad scenario: Two parties in an overall dead heat, with one (the NDP) leading in urban Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, while the other (the Conservatives) dominating the rest of the rural province. A government struggling under the weight of public fatigue after several years in power. An opposition leader still unknown to the public, with baggage to overcome, but a huge potential upside as well.
Welcome back to 2017, everybody. Get ready for a rough ride.
It’s becoming clear the 2024 election will likely hang on the results of a handful of seats in Metro Vancouver suburban ridings, just like in 2017, with a dash of action on Vancouver Island to keep things interesting.
The familiar battlegrounds of Surrey, Richmond, the Tri-Cities, Langley and Chilliwack will be key again, as will north and central Vancouver Island.
In 2017, the NDP and Liberals each ended with 40 per cent of the popular vote. The Liberals won 43 seats, the NDP 41 and the BC Greens held the balance of power with three. That gave the Greens outsized power to help topple the Liberals and partner with the NDP to ensure three years of stable government.
The prospect of another minority situation in 2024 has the BC Greens salivating.
Leader Sonia Furstenau has already called on voters not to give majority power to either NDP Leader David Eby or Conservative Leader John Rustad, and to instead return the Green party, the self-professed “conscience of the legislature” back to its former glory.
The Greens face a very difficult path to get there, with Furstenau switching ridings and their only other MLA, Adam Olsen, retiring. But never count them out.
An equally likely scenario though is the rise of independents, a phenomenon that did not exist in 2017.
Six incumbent MLAs are running as independents in 2024. Most of the candidacies are a result of the spectacular implosion of BC United last month, and the desire of five MLAs to continue fighting despite being picked up by the BC Conservatives.
Dan Davies, Mike Bernier and Tom Shypitka could put up a serious challenge to Conservatives in their respective ridings of Peace River North, Peace River South and Kootenay-Rockies.
Coralee Oakes will face a tough battle in Prince George-North Cariboo, but is resilient. And Karin Kirkpatrick, who ended her retirement plans to give centrist voters an option in West-Vancouver Capilano, is making a strong push to hold her riding without the BC United banner.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the electoral fence, Parksville-Qualicum MLA Adam Walker intends to run as an independent in the newly redrawn riding of Ladysmith-Oceanside, after being ousted from the BC NDP in 2023.
Walker said he’s already hearing from constituents hoping he can help hold the balance of power after the Oct. 19 election results pour in.
If just a few of those independents get elected — and it’s a big if, as only one independent, Vicki Huntington in Delta South, has been elected as an independent in the last 50 years — it could be a whole new ball game at the B.C. legislature.
The party with the most to lose by the rise of the independents is the BC Conservatives. The decision not to take these United incumbents could cost them ridings, including in vote-split scenarios that let BC NDP candidates skate to victory in seats they might otherwise not be able to win.
If the Conservatives come up just short of a majority, they’ll be kicking themselves.
It all adds up to a fascinating dynamic for the upcoming election. Hold on to your hats, it’s going to be a wild ride.
Rob Shaw has spent more than 16 years covering B.C. politics, now reporting for CHEK News and writing for Glacier Media. He is the co-author of the national bestselling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly podcast Political Capital, and a regular guest on CBC Radio.
He recently published a webinar primer video for the BC election, .
