The Trudeau era of the Liberal Party of Canada has come to an end. But is it the end of the party’s decade in power?
The coming weeks and months will determine whether that is the case. Members of the Liberal Party will select a new leader who will become the 24th prime minister of Canada—even if it is just for a few months. The choice in front of party members is to either continue the status quo or to start a new era for Canada’s longest standing political movement.
Poll after poll shows Liberal support from Canadians is declining—some may even say collapsing. Last month, a survey by the Angus Reid Institute showed that support for the Liberals was at an all-time low of 16 per cent. That is even lower than the level of support Michael Ignatieff received in the 2011 election, which reduced the party to third-party status.
This is a five-alarm fire for the party. Canadians have lost confidence in the Liberals’ ability to lead the country in all measures. Why? Because everyday life is becoming—or has become—unaffordable for far too many.
So, where do the Liberals go from here?
It is about time for Liberals to accept that this is where we are and to stop trying to explain to Canadians that they should feel or think differently.
The leadership race is an opportunity to renew and reinvigorate the party by putting Canadians back at the centre of the conversation and delivering a vision that respects the hopes and fears of the public. This is not the time for infighting with distractions, like purity tests on who is more of a Liberal.
Progressives in Canada only need to look south for some insight and learnings from the historic political comeback of Donald Trump, who defeated the well-funded Kamala Harris campaign to secure a second presidential mandate. As James Carville reminded us in a recent New York Times op-ed: “It was, it is and it always will be the economy, stupid.” Canada’s next election will be won by who Canadians believe will be more likely to put more money in their wallets and make life more affordable.
In the coming days, rumoured leadership candidates will transition to officially declared contenders in the fight to be the next prime minister.
The electoral hill to climb is steep and it is unclear if any new Liberal leader can reverse the low and sustained polling numbers that have weighed the party down during its current mandate.
The next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada needs to show Canadians they hear their concerns and—even better—that they share them. It is the only way the party has a chance to push back against a decade of being in the political wilderness. The next leader must be battle-tested with a track record of success on the campaign trail, growing the economy to create well-paying jobs for people and families, and an excellent communicator who can not only go head-to-head with Pierre Poilievre, but who can effectively connect with Canadians across the country.
The next leader needs to be running to win.
The path to win is clear—it’s the economy, stupid.
Tyler Pronyk is vice-president of strategy and operations at Coast Communications and Public Affairs. He also serves as a director-at-large on the B.C. board of the Liberal Party of Canada.
