Incumbent:
Terry Beech (Liberal | 2015)
Candidates:
Liberal: Terry Beech
Conservative: Mauro Francis
New Democratic: Michael Charrois
People’s: Jesse Fulton
2021 Results:
Liberal - 41 per cent
Conservative - 27 per cent
New Democratic - 27 per cent
Green - three per cent
People’s - three per cent
Straddling both sides of the Burrard Inlet, Burnaby North—Seymour stretches from the sleepy towns of Lynn Valley to the emerging skyscrapers of Brentwood Mall. Even with redistribution cutting out progressive neighbourhoods around Lougheed, centre-left consolidation under the Liberals may alter the dynamics in this battleground.
While races in the past decade have been between the Liberals and the New Democrats, the latter’s nosedive in the polls combined with a jump in Conservative support may turn the race here into a red-blue battle. Terry Beech has experience dispatching lefty challengers, too: his 2019 re-election was a dogfight against Svend Robinson, former NDP MP for the Burnaby portion of the riding, while 2021 was a more comfortable 10-point win against North Vancouver District Coun. Jim Hanson, also of the NDP. This time, the NDP has nominated the lower-profile Michael Charrois, former candidate for the federal riding of North Vancouver, theatre instructor and constituency advisor for BC NDP MLA Susie Chant.
The main challenger to Beech this time may be the Conservatives’ Mauro Francis. Boasting ties on both ends of the Inlet, Francis has honed his campaigning skills in past City of Vancouver races. To win, though, Francis will have to tap into the emerging, unorthodox Conservative coalition in the riding foreshadowed by the provincial Tories last year.
Since 2015, the Liberals have solidified their grip over once swingy Seymour, with Conservatives slumping below 30 per cent there in the last two elections. Burnaby, meanwhile, has been tight between the Liberals and the New Democrats, with the Conservatives in a distant third. Last October’s provincial election turned this dynamic on its head, with the BC Conservatives winning more than 40 per cent of the vote in Burnaby North and Burnaby East, but getting stomped by a staggering 17-point margin in North Vancouver-Seymour.
These results are attributable to realignment along the lines of age and income. Poilievre’s Conservatives have improved significantly among voters under the age of 35 but have lost quite a bit of ground among Boomers to the Liberals under Mark Carney. North of the Burrard Inlet, Beech will likely consolidate the broader centre-left. Francis’ challenge will come from neighbourhoods west of Burnaby Mountain. Willingdon Heights, which supported Italian-Canadians like the NDP’s Pietro Calendino, could see major improvements for the Conservatives. Whatever solace for the NDP will be found in small pockets of squeezed renters scattered across Burnaby’s basement suites and old blue-collar workers still loyal to the party.
Over the last decade, the character of Burnaby has changed drastically. Brentwood Mall is the visible epicentre of this development, but many working-class neighbourhoods have become home to a more affluent middle-class over the last few decades, including a growing Chinese population along Parker Street. With the Liberals expected to do well in Seymour, the race here will be determined by the Burnaby turf once home to Tommy Douglas.
