ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) 鈥� African leaders may have been quick to , professing a desire for mutually beneficial partnerships, but there are meager expectations that his presidency will change things for this continent of over 1.4 billion people.
In the wake of Trump's win, Kenya's William Ruto said his country 鈥渟tands ready鈥� to deepen its ties with Washington. Nigeria's Bola Tinubu spoke of a second Trump administration ushering in an era of 鈥渆arnest, beneficial, and reciprocal鈥� cooperation.
Still, observers say African countries 鈥� 鈥� are definitely not going to be high on his to-do list.
Low priority or not even a concern?
U.S. foreign policy for a long while 鈥� beyond seeing the continent such as , said Charles Ray, chair of the Foreign Policy Research Institute鈥檚 Africa Program.
President Joe Biden talked about Africa as a key partner, said Ray, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe between 2009 and 2012.
But not much action followed those words.
Africa 鈥渨ill be at the very bottom of (Trump's) list of priorities鈥� and any U.S. action on the continent would likely be driven by his 鈥渢ransactional, ego-driven leadership style,鈥� Ray added.
Many experts agree, citing Trump鈥檚 鈥淎merica First鈥� strategy.
Murithi Mutiga, program director for Africa at the Crisis Group, says the president-elect is 鈥渁 committed isolationist and clearly wants to pull back鈥� on various fronts across the world.
Some say there are deals to be made, even in Africa
J. Peter Pham, Trump's former special envoy to Africa's Great Lakes and Sahel regions, says the next Trump presidency may look for a 鈥渨in-win鈥� situation in Africa.
That could include a renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which grants eligible African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets, Pham said during a Voice of America broadcast.
However, U.S. lawmakers have been asking questions about whether African countries are complying with conditions under the program 鈥� or if they are undermining U.S. foreign policy interests and national security, Pham said.
South Africa, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the program, was accused by U.S. Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 of and its professed neutral stance on the war was brought into question.
Basically, you don't 鈥渒ick America in the teeth鈥� in ways that raise questions about compliance with such deals, Pham said.
Those that do "will be treated as pariahs,鈥� said Ray, with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Africa's myriad health and other crises, abortion and LGBTQ+ rights
The top concern is that the next Trump presidency will cut funding. In many parts of Africa, such cuts could be critical for millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and choices are supported heavily by U.S.-funded programs.
鈥淭he situation is already bad for girls (and) it will turn into a disaster without these services,鈥� said Valentine Damitoni, a mother at 18.
She regularly visits a local clinic in Zimbabwe鈥檚 capital of Harare to receive a contraceptive under a U.S.-funded program that allows her to return to school without fears of falling pregnant again.
Max Primorac, a former acting deputy administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development 鈥� one of Africa鈥檚 biggest development aid donors 鈥� criticized some of the agency's programs in proposed by the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation to reshape the federal government.
In particular, Primorac criticized USAID programs that 鈥減romote abortion, climate extremism and interventions against perceived systematic racism.鈥� The document is said to 鈥� though he has distanced himself from it.
Kiron Skinner, the head of policy planning at the U.S. State Department during Trump鈥檚 first term in office, recommends in the document that in Africa, America should 鈥渇ocus on core security, economic, and human rights鈥� rather than impose 鈥渞adical abortion and pro-LGBT initiatives.鈥�
New realignments in Africa, turning to Russia and China
In Africa's , soldiers are increasingly and riding anti-Western sentiments to sever ties with longstanding allies like the United States and France 鈥� while turning to a new friend: Russia.
China, which casts infrastructural loans to African countries as mutually beneficial cooperation, rarely interferes in internal politics of the recipients countries. Russia, the continent鈥檚 biggest arms supplier, is .
Both countries, as indeed America, have shown huge interest in Africa鈥檚 rich mineral resources.
Mutiga, of the Crisis Group, says 鈥渢he problem historically has been that the U.S. and the West viewed Africa as a problem" to be solved. China and others "saw it as an opportunity to be grasped.鈥�
Will Trump backpedal on Biden's pledges?
The Biden administration announced last December that it had invested at least $22 billion in Africa and promised to do more. Trump, during his first term, continuously sought to slash foreign affairs funding,
Analysts are concerned about whether key U.S. projects in health, security and development would be implemented under Trump 鈥� especially at a time of worsening hunger and in Africa.
For many ordinary Africans, Trump is just a distant leader who can't do much about their everyday problems.
鈥淭rump ... is not going to save us from hunger caused by our government,鈥� said Isah Mohammed, a fruit seller in Nigeria's capital, Abuja.
Africa's flashpoints, from
Western Sahara to Somalia
In Morocco, many rejoiced after Trump鈥檚 win, hoping his return to office would help the North African country further its push to win global recognition for its sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara.
"The return of the friend of Morocco to the White House,鈥� proclaimed the country's Assabah newspaper in its editorial.
As part of a larger deal that included Morocco normalizing its ties with Israel, Trump shifted longstanding U.S. policy and recognized Morocco鈥檚 sovereignty claims before leaving office in 2020.
Biden has not reversed that decision 鈥� but has also not advanced the Trump administration鈥檚 promise to build a consulate in the disputed territory.
The stability in the by the raging war in Sudan and growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the latter鈥檚 .
Trump will likely cut funding to Somalia and engage more with Somaliland, predicts Rashid Abdi, an analyst at the Nairobi-based Sahan Research think tank.
What's stopping Africa's progress? Maybe Africa itself
The G20, as a permanent member last year 鈥� a powerful acknowledgement of the continent's more than 50 countries and something Biden had said was 鈥渁 long time in coming.鈥�
But despite that step on the global stage, observers say the union and its leaders have not lived up to expectations, failing to articulate their interests and table their demands as a united front.
鈥淭he question is often, what will Washington do, but, really, what is Africa鈥檚 interest?鈥� said Mutiga, with the Crisis Group.
鈥淲e鈥檙e in an age of transactional global relations and unless Africa can engage in a way that articulates its own interests, America鈥檚 (interests in Africa) will continue to be determined by geopolitical competition with its rivals,鈥� he said.
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Associated Press reporters Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe, and Sam Metz in Rabat, Morocco, contributed to this report.
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Chinedu Asadu, The Associated Press
